Hydra and the Sword

A lot of hypothesizing is being done about what will happen next, now that al-Zarqawi is rather thankfully no longer a player in this grand drama. Some of the speculation is that it is now time to withdraw the troops (which I personally think is a bit premature and opportunistic); another is that trust may be deepened between Sunni and Shia; another is that violence will escalate; another still is that this is all a diversionary stunt. I think what's interesting and helpful about this development is what it does to the terrorist insurgency in Iraq. First, I don't think al-Zarqawi is easily replaced. For evil or for good, some individuals possess a je ne se quois that is not easily replicated. If you remove Bill Gates from the Microsoft equation, then the results are altered. I imagine the same will be true of al-Zarqawi. Whatever the terrorist movement does from here, it will not be the same. Second, while the movement is notorious for its cell division and the difficulties that brings in tracking and defusing the movement, this development can't help but breed questions in the leadership. And if second guessing foments at the head, it invariably works its way through the body--cell structure or no. Between the 'irreplaceability' of the leader and the distrust at the top, the overall consequence is a slowing of movement--and that is nothing but good for our side.